Minimal Requirements for a genocide early recognition Institute.

Outline of an Institute to be established by an independent Foundation in Germany’s Capital Berlin.
[Gunnar Heinsohn, Bremen, 10-1-2000]

Section G "LEO KUPER" (+1997)

Mankind still lacks an early warning station which permanently scans the globe for red-alert signs* indicating the imminent beginning of genocides. Like a weather service it would collect and disseminate such information to the public - including potential perpetrators. To be really free to broadcast all per- tinent news it has to be independent of military bodies designed to fight genocides.
[Kuper has put forward the genocide watch idea in 1982 and 1985.]



Today, there exist half a dozen one man/woman institutes dedicated to comparative genocide research. The international Association of Genocide Scholars counts some 150 members. History, - sociology, assessment of genocidal potential** and pre-prevention of genocide are their main topics. Their es research is poorly funded.
[Lemkin coined the term »genocide« in 1944. He was the main author of the UN-Genocide Convention of 1948.]

All 13 positions listed below require university trained researchers. They will work as part of a computerized network on the same hierarchical level, i.e, without secretaries. All of them must at least have command of English. Those working in the regional sections will need additional language skills.

  1. Global situation room
  2. Verification
  3. Network/Computers (1 person)
  (I) Speaker/genocide history (1 person)
(II) Administration (1 person)
(III) International law (1 person)
(IV) Archive and library (1 Person)

Regional Departments

For all nations and major political movements of the world special profiles measuring genocidal potential have to be worked out and kept up to date. They allow a ranking from low to high risk nations and/or movements. The regional researchers of the Early Recognition section and the Genocide Potential section cooperate in the selection of nations to be scanned for red-alert signals as well as in the updating of the national "fever curves".

  1. Africa (1 person)
  2. Asia (1 person)
  3. Rest of the world (1 person)
  (A) Africa (1 person)
(B) Asia (1 person)
(C) Rest of the world (1 person)


*Historically, roughly 25% of high risk nations have transformed their genocidal potential (see note **below) into actual genocide. To point them out in advance, all of the high risk nations have to be scanned for red-alert signals. This is the genuine task of the Early Recognition section. Every genocide needs preparation which is difficult to conceal. At least six quite visible indicators for the imminence of a genocide have been identified: (i) registration and/or marking of prospective victims; (ii) staging a propaganda which paints the prospective victims as a mortal danger to the prospective perpetrators; (iii) dismission of military leaders who refuse to join in genocide operations; (iv) recruiting and training of special killing units [Cete, Tsheka, SS, Tchetniks, Interhamwe etc.]; (v) employing new euphemisms like "ethnographic restoration" or "final solution" [Hitler on Poles and Jews respectively], "ethnic cleansing" [Serbs on fellow Yugoslavians], "civil war" [Hutus on Tutsis] etc.; (vi) sudden appearance of --non-famine or disaster induced-- refugees belonging to endangered minorities.

To draw the profiles of high risk nations, comparative genocide research focuses on eight predictive economic, demographic, ideological, ethnic and ethical variables indicating genocidal potential (1) a history of minorities outside the moral obligation of the majority [e’s. g., Jews, Armenians, Chinese]; (2) a relevant percentage of young men with no hope for positions to satisfy their ambitions; (3) a preponderance of Marxist-Leninist, clericalist, nationalist/tribalist, racist and/or other anti-humanitarian ideologies; (4) an accepted political role for the military; (5) at least one totalitarian political party in power or well positioned to conquer it; (6) the totalitarian party has territorial claims against neighbors; (7) a civil war is waged against the internal resistance and/or a war against neighbors to realize these aims; (8) the legitimate secrecy in times of war is used as a cover for the killings with those minorities most vulnerable which have no retaliatory power of their own, no foreign allies or are hardly known to the rest of the world.